FutureProof

Will AI replace Software Developers?

Software Developers rank 81/100 on observed AI exposure — more of this job's tasks show up in real AI usage than in 91% of US occupations. High exposure means AI already overlaps with much of the work, not that the job disappears. Notably, employment is still projected to grow faster than the average occupation through 2034 — pointing to AI reshaping the role rather than shrinking it.

81/ 100High exposure

High exposure — time to adapt, and here is how

81/100 reflects how much AI is used in this job today. Its theoretical exposure as tools improve ranks 83/100.

Software Developers by the numbers

MEDIAN WAGE
$135,980 /year
JOB GROWTH 2024–34
+15.8% (US avg +3.1%)
US EMPLOYMENT
1.7 million jobs
AI HORIZON (THEORETICAL)
83 /100

Across all measured AI usage (dataset-wide, not specific to this occupation), about 43% is automation — AI doing a task — while 57% is augmentation, AI assisting a person.

Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS Employment Projections 2024–34 · Anthropic Economic Index (CC-BY) · Felten et al. AIOE · Methodology
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Frequently asked questions

Will AI replace Software Developers?

No data source can answer that with certainty — what we can measure is overlap. Software Developers score 81/100 on observed AI exposure (how much of the job's tasks appear in real AI usage today) and 83/100 on theoretical exposure as tools improve. High exposure historically means tasks get reshaped and redistributed rather than jobs simply disappearing.

How much do Software Developers earn in the US?

The national median wage for Software Developers is $135,980 per year (BLS OEWS, May 2025).

Is the job market for Software Developers growing or shrinking?

BLS projects employment for Software Developers to change by +15.8% between 2024 and 2034 (national average: +3.1%). About 1.7 million people held this job in 2024.

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